Few Profiles in Courage

The News Bureau at the University of Illinois, where I work, asked me several  questions recently. I thought I would share my responses, thus getting a two-for-one out  of the assignment. 

What do you foresee happening with Illinois politics this year? More gridlock  and partisan bickering because of election year politics, or a concerted effort to  tackle the state’s many problems? 

Election years are dominated by candidate fear of 30-second commercials that  often distort or magnify an official’s vote on a controversial issue, so expect the state  legislative leaders to keep such votes to a minimum.  

Actually, the Democrats and Republicans in the House have begun cooperating on  a number of issues, including the budget, which will be the overriding challenge of the  spring session. 

As now required, Gov. Pat Quinn has released a three-year budget projection,  which is an exercise in creative writing. The projection shows, for example, that health  care spending will be flat (no change) over the three years, which is not at all practicable.  

And even after a 67 percent increase in the state income tax this past year, the  optimistic budget projection foresees deficits this year as well as in the future. The  deficits are driven primarily by sharp increases in the spending for pensions, required by  present state law to begin to shore up the underfunded state pension systems.

What does the future hold for the state’s five pension systems? Is there a  compromise solution out there that will pass constitutional muster and avoid a  lengthy court battle? 

Pension benefits for new state employees were reduced a year ago. Business  groups feel that pension benefits must also be reduced for current employees, and maybe  in the health care benefits for employees and retirees as well. I also believe, unfair as it is  to present employees, that further changes are required; otherwise, the costs of pensions  will crowd out spending for education and human services. 

But don’t expect the legislature to move on any further changes until after the  November elections, as too many voters would be affected. 

Then there is the state constitutional issue. The state charter declares that  “Membership in any pension or retirement system of the State (and its local  governments) shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall  not be diminished or impaired.”  

Does this apply to future benefits or just those already earned. There is  disagreement on this. I believe the legislature will ultimately enact a law that does affect  future benefits of current employees, which will then be challenged and resolved by the  state Supreme Court. 

Will redistricting help or hurt Democrats in their efforts to retake the US  House of Representatives in2012? 

Democrats drew the Illinois congressional districts in 2011. As a result, that party  may regain two or three of the five seats Republicans captured from the Dems in 2010. 

Democrats took away one GOP seat when they forced Republican representatives Don  Manzullo and Adam Kinzinger to duke it out for a single seat in central Illinois.  Dems are also pinning their hopes on unseating one-term GOP representative  Bobby Schilling, of Colona in the Quad-Cities area, with Cheri Bustos of nearby Moline,  who first has to win a primary contest.  

This will not, however, be much help to Democrats in whittling down the 242-192  margin the Republicans hold in Congress, which would require a shift of 26 seats to  regain control. 

State legislatures did the redistricting last year, and 28 of the bodies are controlled  by Republicans versus only 15 by Democrats, with the rest split between the parties, so  there was a GOP bias in the process nationally. I think 26 seats represent a mountain to  high to surmount for Democrats. 

Do you expect lawmakers to pursue gambling expansion in the spring  session? 

This past year, Gov. Pat Quinn vetoed a bill that would have added five more  casinos plus slot machines at tracks, calling it top heavy. Legislators were unable to  override the veto. 

Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel is determined to get a casino for Chicago, which  he thinks would generate $300 million or so each year for the cash-strapped city. After World War II, Chicago alone represented 50 percent of the state’s  population. That share has shrunk to just 20 percent, so city legislators alone cannot come  close to enacting a casino for Chicago. Emanuel is persuasive, but I don’t think he can  find enough support from suburbanites and downstaters to achieve his goal this spring.

In other words, don’t expect many lawmakers to write profiles in courage during  this spring session of the legislature.