Rauner-Madigan Battle Continues to 2018
As a recovering political junkie, I am captivated by the titanic 2018 campaign battle shaping up between GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner and state Democratic Party chair and House speaker Mike Madigan.
Rauner has reportedly committed two to three times more than the $50 million he has already put into to his campaign. Billionaire Ken Griffin just kicked in another $20 million to the Rauner cause as well.
On the other side, Madigan appears to be encouraging J. B. Pritzker in his gubernatorial aspirations, on the premise that he will draw on his $3.4 billion net worth to self-fund a campaign to match or better Rauner’s money. This would free union and trial lawyer money for Madigan to protect large Democratic state legislative majorities.
Campaign finance expert Kent Redfield says a contest between Rauner and Pritzker would easily double the $113 million spent in the 2014 Illinois race for governor, which would make it the most expensive in American history.
Much of the Rauner-GOP money will be spent on the governor’s obsession with using a governmental matter (withholding approval of a state budget) to bring Madigan to his knees, crying “Uncle” to support business-friendly reforms.
After three Spring legislative sessions, this hasn’t yet worked.
Rauner has had more success on the purely political front. He has successfully demonized Madigan as the fount of all the state’s political problems, via endless TV ads and even a scathing biopic (“Madigan”), which played in one of my local theaters.
The impact has been dramatic, at least in my downstate rural area. In years past, the guys at the back table at Connie’s Country Kitchen wouldn’t have had a clue as to who the speaker of the House was, or that we even had one.
Now when I ask about the state budget mess, they are all quick to blame “that guy Madigan.” A recent poll taken by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University backs up my coffee-drinking friends. Only 26 percent approve of the job Madigan is doing. More important, 89 percent indeed had an opinion about Madigan.
This is unprecedented in Illinois politics—that Rauner has been able to make Madigan, just one among 177 legislators, a household name statewide—think Darth Vader.
Rauner’s approval rating isn’t much higher, at 36 percent. That might be even lower, had Madigan the money to vilify the governor tit-for-tat over the past two years, but he hasn’t. Madigan has to go, I agree. It is not healthy for democracy to have one man in office half a century, and in the cat bird’s seat most of that time. Madigan’s power is such that not one piece of legislation—not one—can ever pass in the Illinois legislature without his stamp of approval. Not democracy.
Rauner will wrap the albatross that he has made of Madigan around the necks of all Democratic statewide and legislative candidates.
I think, in order to win the governorship next year, the Democratic nominee will have to distance himself somehow, maybe even criticize, his own Democratic Party chair, that is, House Speaker Michael Madigan. Ditto for many Democratic legislators up for re-election.
Without Madigan, Rauner wouldn’t have much of a chance for re-election, in my book. With Madigan center stage in the campaign, the governor does have a chance. Rauner may also be able—though a long shot, even with his big money—to flip the nine seats in the House necessary to take control away from Madigan.
It will be impossible, however, to turn the state Senate Republican. Dems have more than a three-fifths majority in that chamber, and not all senators are up for re-election. In the meantime, after three Spring lawmaking sessions without one, we simply have to see a responsible state budget enacted by lawmakers and Madigan, and signed by the governor. The state’s unpaid bills alone now equal more than $1,000 for every man, woman and child in Illinois.
Although in normal times it would be a terrible idea, if we don’t get a responsible budget soon, I say of all of them, “Throw the Bums Out (TTBO).”
