Presidential Nominating Process

I write a periodic column about “Understanding America” for the Oriental  Morning Post, a leading Chinese-language newspaper in Shanghai (they translate my  words). This past week, I wrote a 1,500 word piece for the OMP about our presidential  nominating process. Since American newspapers generally limit such columns to 600- 750 words, I am excerpting here from the OMP column just as I wrote for my editor in  Shanghai: 

The U.S. presidential nominating process is complicated. Few Americans  understand it fully. The process is a conglomeration of influences that include federal and  state laws, political party rules, the Supreme Court, candidates, money and the media. 

Delegates to the Republican National Convention are selected within the 50  states, via caucuses and primary elections. In caucuses, party members go to physical  caucus locations such as schools, churches, or government buildings where they debate  the candidates’ credentials and policy positions and then cast votes for their respective  favorite candidates.  

By the way, in the U.S. there is no formal party membership. (NOTE to American  readers: This would be a revelation to Chinese readers, as membership in the Chinese  Communist Party is limited to invitation and much is expected of party members.) Any  person may register with election officials or simply declare that he belongs to the  Republican or Democratic Party. There are no dues or responsibilities of membership.

At primary elections, party members (and in a few states, even independents and  members of the other party) vote in an election to select a preferred candidate.  This year, no Republican has yet emerged as the favorite. Thus it is possible that  several candidates will go down the gauntlet of primaries and caucuses, and none will  arrive at the convention with a majority of delegates pledged to him. In that case, the  convention delegates will make the selection in what is called an “open convention.” This  means that even new candidates, who did not participate in the caucuses and primaries,  may be considered by the delegates. 

The GOP convention selects 2,380 delegates from the 50 states and American  territories. To win the Republican Party nomination, a candidate must win the support of  a majority of the delegates. At present, less than 10 percent of the delegates to the  convention have been selected through the caucuses and primaries that have been held  thus far. 

Money is the elephant in the election process [by elephant, Americans mean  something like a “huge factor”-JN]. No candidate can win the 2012 nomination and  general election without hundreds of millions of dollars in support from individuals, trade  associations and unions. Obama hopes to raise $1 billion for his campaign. Conservative  activist and campaign guru Karl Rove hopes to raise $300 million for his “super PAC.” 

A super political action committee (super PAC) is a somewhat new phenomenon.  Super PACs have been developed in the wake of U.S. Supreme Court decisions in recent  years which have held that money is speech, and thus individuals and groups cannot be  limited in their total spending on campaigns. 

Individuals are limited as to what they can contribute to presidential candidates-- $5,000 per election per individual. So these super PACs seek additional, often huge,  donations from the super-wealthy class.  

For example, a billionaire who owns gambling casinos in Las Vegas, among other  holdings, has contributed $5 million to a super PAC that supports Newt Gingrich. About two-thirds of the money raised by candidates and super PACs goes for  advertising on television and social media. Most of the spending is for negative,  sometimes vicious and misleading ads that make the opponent appear to be lower than  pond scum [means a very low form of life, like algae-JN] 

Campaigns have become exponentially more expensive in recent decades. When  I ran for the office of state representative in the 1960s, I spent $5,000 in a contested race,  which would be about $30,000 today. In recent contested campaigns for the same office  in my state of Illinois, up to $1 million has been spent! 

Many of us fear that through super PACs American politics will become  controlled by the super-wealthy. For example, a person can watch a presidential  candidate’s standing in the polls ebb and flow based on the infusions of major advertising  purchases by the super PACs. 

If process does go to an open convention in Tampa, FL August 27, look for new  candidates to emerge. After all, the delegates are generally required to support their  candidates from the caucuses or primaries only on the first ballot at the convention.