Obvious Time for a Centrist Party in America

November 3rd, 2024

There is an open space for a significant new, centrist political party, created by the pull of the Progressive and Trump bases to their respective, opposite poles on the political spectrum. This would be a daunting challenge, of course, yet there is precedent. 

Only once in American history has a new party replaced a major party. In 1854, in Ripon WI, Jackson MI and Aurora IL, a new, rather centrist Republican Party emerged to oppose the extension of slavery to the North, replacing a Whig Party divided on the issue. I say centrist because this wasn’t all that abolitionists wanted, yet it was a step in the right direction. And working-class northern men were drawn to a new party that would prevent slaves from taking their jobs.

Moderates have been largely squeezed out of political relevance by a combination of acrimonious polarization, plus the extreme gerrymandering of congressional and legislative districts in many states. You know how it works: the dominant party redraws districts and cherry-picks its voters, while concentrating the minority party’s voters in fewer districts. The dominant party in each resulting district controls the primary, which becomes the election, where unorganized moderates either lack the numbers to compete, or simply don’t participate. 

This polarization has disenchanted many of the 43 percent of Americans who consider themselves neither Democrats nor Republicans, according to a 2024 Gallup survey. In reaction, folks I talk with in my small-town circle want an end to the political bile, and prefer a coming together to solve our problems.

So, why hasn’t a Centrist Party emerged to date? First, new or “third” parties try to contest national presidential elections, where they fail to win, as otherwise sympathetic voters logically drop away, casting ballots where they could make a difference. This national approach is bound to fail, for lack of money and credibility. 

Efforts at new or moderate parties have also failed in the past either because: 1) their party planks have been adopted by one of the major parties (the Socialist Party and its espousal of what became Social Security and Medicare), and 2) they have been perceived as fringe radicals (again, the Socialist Party).

Those who identify with neither major party are a diverse lot, including middle-of-the-roaders, leaners toward one of the parties, independents. Some are highly engaged, some unengaged, some idiosyncratic. 

Moderate or “Center” parties have a long tradition in western democracies. They have often served as arbiters in problem-solving that otherwise keeps polar parties at loggerheads. A Centrist Party in America would also be contesting general rather than primary elections, adding a fresh alternative. Such a middle party could bring pragmatic solutions to critical problems the major parties avoid like the plague, such as future funding of Medicare and Social Security, and out-of-control public spending and debt.

A Centrist Party wouldn’t be competitive everywhere in the U.S., just as the 1860 Republicans weren’t even on the ballot in the Deep South. The fertile ground in which to drive a new Centrist Party’s stake into the turf would be the rapidly diversifying American suburbs. Until recent decades, Republicans dominated most suburbs, yet the diversification of the suburbs, and the opposition of many women there to GOP anti-abortion and unfettered gun rights planks have turned many suburbs blue or purple. The generally well-educated voters there could be attracted to a credible Centrist Party that focused on economic prosperity, public safety and education.

Political parties are basically state entities, not national. Candidates file petitions with state and local authorities. Each state has its unique procedures for establishing a new political party. In my state of Illinois, key elements include circulating statewide petitions and running a slate of statewide candidates. Focus should, however, be on a developing a platform of pragmatic party planks, and the recruitment of candidates to run in several targeted, winnable suburban state legislative and congressional districts. And then build from there, as the original Republican Party did.

This wouldn’t be easy, obviously. My insider friends say impossible, but they are terminally conventional in their thinking, as the Whigs were. I respond that the broad center is disaffected from the do-nothing polarized parties, and could be aroused to take electoral action on critical problems.

If you want to be kept abreast of Centrist Party efforts, add yourself, as well as your thoughts, to a private email list at jimnowlan.net. We can make an important difference in American politics. 

Nowlan managed the successful, competitive re-election campaign in 1978 of U.S. Sen. Charles H. Percy (R-IL) and organized the 1979-80 presidential candidacy of U.S. Rep. John B. Anderson (R-IL). He is a former state legislator, senior aide to three Illinois governors, and chair of the Illinois Executive Ethics Commission (yes, Myrtle, Illinois has one). One of Nowlan’s recent books is Politics—The Starter Kit: How to Succeed in Politics and Government (2023).

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/01/12/voters-who-identify-as-independents-skyrocket---as-democrats-and-republicans-dwindle/